A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."