Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.