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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It frequently functions as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who engineered the biggest turnaround wins the prize. In reality, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or merely the most shocking upset.

But the latest race is profoundly different. The list of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning conference winners falling away and longtime also-rans improving in unison. In an normal year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and thrilling season, he's facing five other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to create magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this is not a typical season!

Where his case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee after his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect staff mix of youth and experience, he trusted first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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